Of the three post-halving bitcoin bubbles, the bubble of 2020-2021 was the “smallest” of all. There are two main reasons for this: an increase in the global coverage of the crypto market and an increase in the share of long-term investors in it.
As coverage increases, the market becomes more mature and less volatile. At the same time, if in 2013-2017 the main fuel of bubbles was the capital of speculators who consider BTC as a temporary toy to “resell and forget”, then in 2020 a much larger percentage of the population believed in the long-term prospects of the cryptocurrency. By this time, bitcoin and ether had become legally available to large institutional investors in the United States. The government of the country allowed even pension funds to acquire these assets, instilling confidence in the market that they would no longer be banned.
We have already talked about the exponential growth in the number of users and the base price level of BTC — doubling every year. According to these estimates, if the BTC market had been free of bubbles in recent years, and there had been no covid crises in the global economy (with the collapse of indices), then at the end of 2020 BTC would have cost about $14 thousand, at the end of 2021 — $28 thousand (with coverage of 290 million users already), and at the end of 2022 — $56 thousand. As the US stock market returns to growth, it is very likely that the BTC rate will return to this trend.
There are two scenarios for future years
The first scenario is realized if the exponential trend continues. Then, at the end of the halving year 2024, BTC can be expected to exchange about $ 200 thousand with a global coverage of about 2 billion people, and in 2025 — speculative growth to $ 400-600 thousand, followed by a correction or flat to the same $ 400 thousand. After all, even in the absence of bubbles, market participants will expect $400 thousand per BTC by the end of 2025, and by the end of 2026 — $700-$800 thousand at all. Dumping BTC for less than $400 thousand during this period is likely to be simply unwise.
The second scenario is likely if, as we approach the billion-dollar bar, the growth in the number of users slows down (as it was, for example, in the late 2000s with the number of Facebook users). Then at the end of 2024, BTC may cost, say, $ 100 thousand, the projected level at the end of 2025 is $ 150 thousand, and at the end of 2026 — $ 200 thousand. Then the maximum level in 2025 is unlikely to exceed $ 300 thousand, and the decline will be up to $ 150-200 thousand.
